Scenarios and models task force activities (IPBES 7 - IPBES 10)
In 2019, the Scenarios and Models work was approved to be put under the responsibility of a new IPBES task force on scenarios and models (2019 to 2023). Building on the activities from the work plan of the expert group on scenarios and models as formulated during the expert meeting in 2018 in The Hague, the objective of the work plan of the task force on scenarios and models as part of the IPBES work programme up to 2030, consists of:
1) Providing support to IPBES assessments on scenarios and models, by
- Mobilizing experts for assessments and for scoping of upcoming assessments
- Mobilizing reviews of drafts of assessments
- Providing advice to assessments
- Coordinating / stimulating the development of scenarios and models, tailored to assessments
2) Catalysing the further development of scenarios and models for future IPBES assessments, by
- Further developing the Nature Futures Framework and scenarios
- Identifying / developing indicators
- Continuing the interaction with the broader modelling community
- Providing guidance on conducting case studies to support the broadening of narratives, indicators, etc.
- Further revising scenarios and narratives
To facilitate the development of scenarios relevant to IPBES, the task force on scenarios and models, supported by the technical support unit, has organised meetings and events such as:
- Workshop on the nature futures scenario-building process, in Hayama, Japan, 24-28 February 2020. See report.
- IPBES workshop on modelling Nature Futures scenarios, online, 12-15 January 2021; See report.
- Stakeholder consultation workshops and external review of the Nature Futures Framework, online, 6 September - 19 October.
- First Indigenous and local knowledge dialogue workshop on scenarios and the Nature Futures Framework, online, 28-30 September & 19 October; see report.
- BES-SIM webinar, 8 April 2022; see recording.
- Second IPBES workshop on modelling Nature Futures scenarios, online, 25 and 28 April, 2022; see report.
- National Focal Points dialogue with a government review of the methodological guidance to the Nature Futures Framework, online, 20 September 2022.
- IPBES workshop to catalyse the further development of scenarios including using the Nature Futures Framework, in Acornhoek, South Africa, 14-16 November 2022; see report.
- Second Indigenous and local knowledge dialogue workshop on the IPBES assessment of transformative change and scenarios of the future, in Leticia, Colombia, 13-16 February 2023; report forthcoming.
Learn more about:
Deliverable 1 - Provision of support on scenarios and models to IPBES assessments