Deliverable 2 - Catalysation of the further development of scenarios and models for future IPBES assessments

The Nature Futures Framework: a flexible tool to support the development of scenarios and models of desirable futures for people, nature and Mother Earth

At its ninth session, the IPBES Plenary welcomed the foundations of the Nature Futures Framework (NFF), a flexible tool to support the development of scenarios and models of desirable futures for people, nature and Mother Earth [1]. In the same session, the plenary invited the scientific community and other relevant actors to test the NFF, and discuss its limits and opportunities, as this may lead to the further development, identification and utilisation of new qualitative and quantitative scenarios and model applications. This, in turn, may provide valuable input for future IPBES assessments and trigger much-needed actions and societal transformations towards desirable futures for people and nature.

The NFF is compatible with the IPBES conceptual framework and describes a diverse set of desirable futures for nature and people, which differ in their emphasis on the type of values people have for nature [2]. The framework is applicable across scales, regions and different specific value perspectives and thus allows the development of comparable new scenarios to better support future IPBES assessments, as well as, models to identify the impact of such scenarios on biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people. 

The NFF places values that people have for nature at its core. The underlying assumption for formulating any type of positive future vision of nature is that nature is valued much more in the future but the reasons it is valued for - the underlying value perspective - can differ widely. The diverse ways in which humans value nature can be used to develop a diversity of possible future scenarios. Therefore, the NFF reflects three specific value perspectives of nature, embracing the diversity of human-nature relationships, within a triangular figure (Figure 2). 

The term ‘value perspectives of nature’ is used to encapsulate the diversity of values that humans have for nature, while focussing primarily on broad-scale differences between intrinsic, instrumental and relational specific values. The space within the triangle represents a continuum or gradient between these three value perspectives. As such, all the potential locations within the triangle relate to each of the three corners and thus offer some combination of all three value perspectives. It is important to bear in mind that the vertices, or corners, of the triangle offer extreme cases of what could be considered a ‘desirable future for nature and people’ that are limited to a particular perspective. These ‘desirable’ futures may be place- or context-specific, subject to local cultures and values. 

However, while the NFF attempts to be as inclusive as possible, like all tools, it has limitations, including the fact that it may not be able to fully encapsulate all ontologies, cosmologies, knowledge systems and world views. According to other knowledge systems and world views, as portrayed in the right-hand part of the figure, human-nature relationships may be perceived in different ways. 

Figure 2. The nature futures framework presents three value perspectives of nature in a triangle. In the “nature for nature” perspective, people view nature as having intrinsic value, and value is placed on the diversity of species, habitats, ecosystems and processes that form the natural world, and on nature’s ability to function autonomously. The “nature as culture”/one with nature perspective primarily highlights relational values of nature, where societies, cultures, traditions and faiths are intertwined with nature in shaping diverse biocultural landscapes. The “nature for society” perspective highlights the utilitarian benefits and instrumental values that nature provides to people and societies. The coloured circles associated with each value perspective blend together where they intersect, indicating that they are not mutually exclusive. According to other knowledge systems and world views, as portrayed in the right-hand part of the figure, human-nature relationships may be perceived in different ways. The examples in the right-hand part of the figure come from the IPBES conceptual framework but are not an exhaustive list of knowledge systems and world views. The bands and dots indicate that the right-hand part of the figure and the left-hand part of the figure are intimately related, but in complex ways that cannot be described in a one-to-one relationship [1]. 

In the “nature for nature” perspective, people view nature as having intrinsic value, and value is placed on the diversity of species, habitats, ecosystems and processes that form the natural world, and on nature’s ability to function autonomously. The “nature as culture”/“one with nature” perspective primarily highlights relational values of nature, where societies, cultures, traditions and faiths are intertwined with nature in shaping diverse biocultural landscapes. The “nature for society” perspective highlights the utilitarian benefits and instrumental values that nature provides to people and societies. Some examples corresponding to the three perspectives are presented in IPBES (2022) [3].

While the nature futures framework builds on the concepts of intrinsic, relational and instrumental values, the three value perspectives do overlap to some degree and the framework allows for their coexistence and complementarity. The framework allows recognition of the diversity of ways in which people define “nature”, and of the understanding that knowledge-scapes, interactions and identity influence the values that individuals attribute to nature [4]. “Nature for nature” both represents intrinsic values and indirectly provides instrumental values though the non-material benefits of healthy ecosystems. “Nature for society” is dominated by the direct and indirect use of a subset of instrumental values, while “nature as culture” captures the relational values, including the non-material contributions of nature. The intrinsic value of nature is integral to many cultures, which is where “nature for nature” and “nature as culture” meet each other.

Modellers’ workshops

The IPBES task force on scenarios and models, in accordance with its draft deliverables and proposed work plan, is working on further developing the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) to catalyse the scientific community to develop new scenarios for future IPBES assessments, and for the modelling communities to develop models to quantify the impact of such scenarios on biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people. Based on the draft description of the NFF and its methodological guidance, the task force has conducted a series of consultations with relevant stakeholders and modelling communities in the period up to the ninth session of the IPBES Plenary. These consultations were intended to collect feedback on the usability of the NFF and contributions to its methodological guidance for catalysing the development of the next generation of scenarios.

As part of this process, the task force on scenarios and models organised a first (online) workshop on modelling Nature Futures Scenarios in January 2021. A second workshop was held on 25 and 28 April 2022 and provided an opportunity to collect feedback on successes and challenges towards improving the operationalization of the NFF, and explore next steps to increase modelling work based on the NFF by the broader scientific community.

First modellers’ workshop, January 2021

During the workshop in January 2021, participants discussed the further methodological steps to enable modelling communities to simulate quantitative scenarios of nature, nature’s contributions to people, and good quality of life, using the NFF at different scales. Furthermore, they discussed future engagement of the modelling communities in the further development and application of the NFF to support IPBES assessments and policies on biodiversity and ecosystem services. 

An outcome of the workshop is gathering the modelling community interested in modelling the NFF and modelling for IPBES on Slack. The Slack environment can be joined by anyone who is interested and is not a formal IPBES community. There are general ‘channels’ as well as specific ‘channels’ for the different case studies. If you are interested in joining or have further questions, please write to the technical support unit at [email protected].

For further details on the outcomes of the workshop, please download the official workshop report which can be found here.

Second modellers’ workshop, April 2022

During the workshop in April 2022, participants shared experiences on the modelling of scenarios with the NFF. A wide range of case study applications at multiple scales was presented and discussed. Moreover, possible ways forward on how to increase modelling work based on the NFF by the broader scientific community were discussed, triggered by a set of presentations by leading experts. 

Follow-up actions were discussed, including increased NFF presence in biodiversity and scenarios forums, the organisation of an NFF scenario analysis workshop by the community itself, and the establishment of an NFF website on case studies and projects to share experiences.

For more information, the report from the workshop can be found here.

[1] IPBES (2022) Decision IPBES-9/1: Implementation of the rolling work programme of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services up to 2030. https://ipbes.net/documents-by-category/Decisions 

[2] Pereira, L. M., Davies, K. K., den Belder, E., Ferrier, S., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., Kim, H., Kuiper, J. J., Okayasu, S., Palomo, M. G., Pereira, H. M., Peterson, G., Sathyapalan, J., Schoolenberg, M., Alkemade, R., Carvalho Ribeiro, S., Greenaway, A., Hauck, J., King, N., Lazarova, T., . . . Lundquist, C. J. (2020). Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework. People and Nature, 2(4), 1172-1195. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10146 

[3] IPBES (2022) Information on advanced work on scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services, Ninth session of the Plenary of IPBES, Information document IPBES/9/INF/16

[4] Berghöfer, U., Rode, J., Jax, K., Förster, J., Berghöfer, A., & Wittmer, H. (2022). ‘Societal Relationships with Nature’: A framework for understanding nature‐related conflicts and multiple values. People and Nature, 4(2), 534-548.