Policy-screening (ex-ante) scenarios

Policy-screening scenarios are used in ex-ante assessments to forecast the effects of alternative policy or management options (interventions) on environmental outcomes. In policy-screening scenarios, a policy, or set of policies, is applied and an assessment of how the policy modifies the future is carried out (Figure 1).

Policy-screening scenario analysis can contribute significantly to policy design and implementation.

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Figure 1: Policy-screening scenarios illustrated by a graph of changes in nature and nature’s benefits over time. The dashed lines represent various policy options under consideration.

Table 3.1: Combining scenario approaches and policy objectives (in the context of policy-screening scenarios ).

Approaches for using scenarios

Brief summary

Relevance for policy-making processes

Role of indirect and direct drivers

INTERVENTION: Policy screening using ex-ante assessment

Depicts the future effects of environmental policies

Policy Screening and impact assessment of alternative policy options before implementation

Driver projections are used as a reference for policy options

 

Examples of assessments which have used policy screening scenarios:

  • Strategic Environmental Assessment of Hydropower on the Mekong mainstream (SEA Directive, 2001).
  • Assessment of biofuel policies on direct and indirect land use change (e.g. Moser and Mußhoff, 2015, DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12114)
  • Rethinking Global Biodiversity Strategies