PAN_5.4_c_49

Improving understanding of the relationship between ecosystem degradation and restoration and landscape structure, and the risk of emergence of disease.
Analysing the evolutionary underpinnings of host shifts that are involved in zoonotic disease spillover and the adaptation of emerging pathogens to new host species.
Climate change impacts and related extreme weather events (e.g. flooding and droughts) on disease emergence, to anticipate future threats.
Obtaining data on the relative importance of illegal,unregulated, and the legal and regulated wildlife trade in disease risk.
Research to better understand the evolutionary underpinnings of host shifts that are involved in zoonotic disease spillover and the adaptation of emerging pathogens to new host species may provide key strategies to predicting patterns of spillover risk. Prior work on viral emergence in particular could be enhanced and used to better focus viral discovery, research and surveillance.
Analyzing EID risk within freshwater and marine ecosystems: As people turn to marine ecosystems in the future for food and energy resources, tourism, and transportation pathways, people will likely come into increasing contact with aquatic species, leading to disease emergence that could affect public health and food security. Examples include influenza strains in seals with zoonotic potential, diseases of marine fish driven by human activity, or conservation threats due to livestock diseases moving into aquatic ecosystems, including antimicrobial resistant pathogens.
Analyzing the importance of vector-borne disease risk and migratory species in disease spread: Emerging disease spread across continents can be enhanced by the mobility of arthropods (including their capacity for anthropogenic spread due to air travel and climate change) and by migratory species. Risk analyses of potential for future spread of arthropod-borne pathogens and those carried by migratory species would provide potentially critical information in pandemic prevention. This is particularly important because of the relatively recent international spread of West Nile and Zika viruses and avian influenza through these mechanisms.
There is a paucity of evidence that climate change has already driven the emergence of infectious diseases, and this is often limited to vector-borne diseases that have clearly shifted in range, rather than increased in incidence. Policies to build knowledge on further incursions of novel diseases or expanding cases of known diseases due to climate change would help drive policy changes to anticipate and reduce further health impacts.
There is a striking paucity of data on certain important aspects of the wildlife trade that could be used directly to enable policies to reduce risk of disease emergence and spread, including: The relative risk of disease emergence and spread in illegal, unregulated and regulated trade in wildlife; The relative risk of disease emergence and spread in international vs. domestic (within-country trade); The relative importance of farmed wildlife in the emergence and spread of infectious diseases; How the wildlife trade supply chain alters disease risk, from capture through to market and slaughter, and how this differs depending on diversity of wildlife and livestock, and density of animals in the trade; Species, number, diversity and time spent for each species in the wildlife trade; Analysis of how risk alters across the value chain; Maps of live animal markets within countries; Volume of trade within-country; Volume of illegal wildlife trade; Attitudes to consumption of wildlife among different age classes and social structures and over time
There is a paucity of empirical data on how large-scale conservation programs that restore habitat, create corridors, or otherwise alter landscapes affect disease transmission, despite evidence from limited studies and modelling that they can promote or reduce disease risk. Long term studies of how changing land use patterns in conservation programs affect host-microbe species assemblages, and transmission among species and into humans and livestock may provide vital knowledge that could be used to better assess the impact of corridors, mosaic landscapes, and other conservation tools on health. It will be critical to conduct studies at multiple scales, relevant to the transmission dynamics, ecological changes and behaviors and activities that drive emergence, as well as the scales targeted by conservation and restoration programs.