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Scenarios and models assessment

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Methodological Assessment Report on Scenarios and Models of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

The Scenarios and Models Assessment, published in 2016, presents a best-practice 'toolkit' for the use of scenarios and models in decision-making on biodiversity, human-nature relationships, and the quality of life. The 'toolkit' helps governments, private sector, and civil society to anticipate change - such as the loss of habitats, invasive alien species, and climate shifts - to reduce the negative impacts on people and to make use of important opportunities.

The Plenary approved the Summary for Policymakers and accepted the chapters of the Assessment at its 4th session in February 2016 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (IPBES 4).

The Scenarios and Models Assessment guides the use of methodologies in all IPBES work and has also made a significant global impact – for instance at the 13th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD COP13) in Mexico, in 2016, where the COP recognized the relevance of the Assessment for the 5th edition of the Global Biodiversity Outlook and listed it among the best available scientific information. The COP also encouraged Parties, other Governments, relevant organizations, the scientific community, stakeholders, as well as indigenous peoples and local communities to develop and use these tools and to contribute to their further development.

IPBES would like to acknowledge and thank all of the experts who contributed to the Assessment.


Editor: Simon Ferrier, Karachepone N. Ninan, Paul Leadley, Rob Alkemade

Members of the management committee who provided guidance for the production of this assessment: Paul Leadley (Multidisciplinary Expert Panel) and Jay Ram Adhikari (Bureau).

Suggested citation: IPBES (2016): The methodological assessment report on scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services. S. Ferrier, K. N. Ninan, P. Leadley, R. Alkemade, L. A. Acosta, H. R. Akçakaya, L. Brotons, W. W. L. Cheung, V. Christensen, K. A. Harhash, J. Kabubo-Mariara, C. Lundquist, M. Obersteiner, H. M. Pereira, G. Peterson, R. Pichs-Madruga, N. Ravindranath, C. Rondinini and B. A. Wintle (eds.). Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, Germany. 348 pages. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3235428


Summary for policymakers

Summary for policymakers - Scenarios (laid out version)

Summary for policymakers of the methodological assessment of scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services (laid out version)
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Summary for policymakers - Scenarios (laid out courtesy translation)

Summary for policymakers of the methodological assessment of scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services (laid out courtesy translation)
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Summary for policymakers - Scenarios (plain text)

Summary for policymakers of the methodological assessment of scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services (plain text)

Report

The methodological assessment report on scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services

The methodological assessment report on scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services
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Comments first review

Comment/First review/Scenarios/Chapter 1

Chapter 1: Overview and vision
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Comment/First review/Scenarios/Chapter 2

Chapter 2: Using scenarios and models to inform decision:making in diverse policy, planning and management contexts
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Comment/First review/Scenarios/Chapter 3

Chapter 3: Building scenarios and models of [indirect and direct] drivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystems
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Comment/First review/Scenarios/Chapter 4

Chapter 4: Modelling impacts of drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning
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Comment/First review/Scenarios/Chapter 5

Chapter 5: Modelling consequences of change in biodiversity and ecosystems for nature's benefits to people
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Comment/First review/Scenarios/Chapter 6

Chapter 6: Linking and harmonizing scenarios and models across scales and domains
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Comment/First review/Scenarios/Chapter 7

Chapter 7: Building capacity for developing, interpreting and using scenarios and models
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Comment/First review/Scenarios/Chapter 8

Chapter 8: Improving the rigor and usefulness of scenarios and models through ongoing evaluation and refinement
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Comments second review

Comments/Second review/Scenarios/Chapter 1

Chapter 1: Overview and vision
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Comments/Second review/Scenarios/Chapter 2

Chapter 2: Using scenarios and models to inform decision:making in diverse policy, planning and management contexts
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Comments/Second review/Scenarios/Chapter 3

Chapter 3: Building scenarios and models of [indirect and direct] drivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystems
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Comments/Second review/Scenarios/Chapter 4

Chapter 4: Modelling impacts of drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning
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Comments/Second review/Scenarios/Chapter 5

Chapter 5: Modelling consequences of change in biodiversity and ecosystems for nature's benefits to people
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Comments/Second review/Scenarios/Chapter 6

Chapter 6: Linking and harmonizing scenarios and models across scales and domains
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Comments/Second review/Scenarios/Chapter 7

Chapter 7: Building capacity for developing, interpreting and using scenarios and models
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Comments/Second review/Scenarios/Chapter 8

Chapter 8: Improving the rigor and usefulness of scenarios and models through ongoing evaluation and refinement
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Comments/Second review/Scenarios/SPM

First review of the Summary for Policymakers
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