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Protocol Developed to Operationalize IPBES Nature Futures Framework (NFF) by Combining it with Multi-Objective Optimization

Through a case study of a rural landscape in northeastern Japan, researchers have developed a protocol with three specifications for operationalizing the IPBES Nature Futures Framework (NFF) in a landscape scenario analysis using a multi-objective optimization framework composed of: (1) exploring nature-positive futures, (2) seeking alternative pathways for targets satisfying visions of plural values, and (3) screening key direct drivers to achieve the targets.

This study modeled the NFF-based scenarios by applying the concept of multi-objective optimization and a landscape change model to explore desirable futures, seek targets in the NFF state space, and screen response options for reaching these targets in the Bekambeushi River watershed in northeastern Japan.

The protocol identified multiple, but few nature-positive and Pareto optimal strategies that satisfied NFF visions; nature-positive, but not Pareto optimal strategies; and non-nature-positive strategies. The protocol also identified key response options to achieve three different NFF value perspectives in the case study area: (1) clear or selective cutting in forestry and (2) solar PV installation on abandoned pastureland in agriculture and energy sectors.
Workshop on modelling nature future scenarios, Conceptual framework
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