Phase 2 of the work on scenarios and models includes: (1) providing expert advice to other IPBES expert groups on the use of existing scenarios and models, e.g. to experts undertaking assessments, and (2) catalysing the development of scenarios and models by the broader scientific community for future IPBES work.

These activities have been organized into a set of tasks which are being carried out by the expert group:

Task 1: Mobilizing research groups to apply the existing IPCC SSP scenarios to a range of biodiversity and ecosystem services models

  • A protocol has been developed for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios. The results will serve as input for the IPBES Global Assessment.
  • Completed; the protocol paper (Kim et al. 2018) may be accessed here: http://biorxiv.org/lookup/doi/10.1101/300632 

Task 2: Mobilizing global institutional stakeholders to identify policy options to enrich the IPCC SSP scenarios using biodiversity and ecosystem services models

  • Report available soon

Task 3: Organization of a session on scenarios and models during the IPBES-5 Stakeholder Day

  • Completed on 6 March 2017.

Task 4: Full "IPBES scenario way forward" information document for the 5th Plenary of IPBES

Task 5: A scientific paper on ‘Multiscale scenarios for nature futures' addressing the scientific community and stakeholders

Task 6: Development of an online evolving guide on the use of scenarios and models

  • Ongoing

Task 7: Organization of a workshop on visioning futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services (Auckland, New Zealand, 4-8 September 2017)

Task 8: Long-term research agenda for the development of new IPBES scenarios

  • Ongoing; several co-creation activities for cross-scale scenario development to be expected in 2018. Updates will appear here, and in the list of scenario and models events (see “Scenarios and models event” tab in menu)

 

As requested by the IPBES Plenary (section V of decision IPBES-4/1), the Multidisciplinary Expert Panel endorsed a detailed work plan for phase 2 of the work on scenarios and models and appointed an expert group to perform that work (See the ‘Scenarios and models phase 2 experts’ tab). This work plan for phase 2 includes two main activities, namely, providing expert advice to relevant expert groups of the Platform, in particular those undertaking assessments, on the use of existing scenarios and models to address the current needs of the Platform (activity 1), and catalysing the development of scenarios and models by the broader scientific community for the future work of the Platform (activity 2).